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Resumen
All over the world, car owners know that car insurance is an integral part of owning a vehicle. It will protect a vehicle from any risks.
The third party liability insurance for the damage to life, health and the property of third parties is called OSAGO.
According to analysts, in order to stabilize the situation in OSAGO market, it is necessary to raise the base tariff by 40-60% and change the territorial coefficients in the most unprofitable regions.
Research relevance: prediction is an important control function for all systems. It is important for the state and for insurance companies. 65% of Russia insurance fees are charged from auto insurance, so prediction is necessary for the state and for the insurance market as a whole.
In order to predict a price, we use ARIMA, the autoregression model and an integrated moving average model, because it is the most popular parametric time series model. The peculiarity of STATISTICA model implementation is that within the framework of one dialogue it is possible to conduct all stages of the classic Box-Jenkins scheme: model identification by the means of autocorrelation and private autocorrelation functions, parameter estimation, adequacy estimation, the prediction of future values.
As a time series, the data of the estimated average price for OSAGO and average payment for OSAGO were chosen to consider the method for the period from January 2010 to April 2017 and the values were determined for the next 11 months. After that, the graphs and the table were developed for an average price prediction for OSAGO and the average repayment for it:
After the forecast that the cost of insurance premiums in the secondary auto insurance market in the Russian Federation (at least for the near future) has a growth trend of 5-5.5%, which may be explained by the forecasted rate of inflation for the next year.
After the forecast it is possible to conclude that an average price for OSAGO will vary from 7400 to 9400 rubles, and average insurance payments will take the positions from 66000 to 71000 rubles.
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