Increasing Of Sustainable Production For High-Producing Dairy Cattle Based On Stochastic Modeling

Resumen

The forage reserve of cattle stability is one of the factors increasing the sustainable dairy cattle breeding. Sustainability entails minimal forage crops yield variability on an annual basis thus reducing the risk of food shortage. This is particularly important for high-producing dairy cattle feeding, which is the most sensitive to changes in feeding conditions or ingredients (Mishchenko,  V.A.  2012). The optimal sown area structure for an agricultural enterprise from the sustainable production point of view can be validated on the basis of stochastic mathematical modeling. For this purpose, the authors have developed an economic-mathematical model of the forage crops sown areas structure optimization, taking into account the sustainability of their production, i.e. minimum forage crops yield deviations from the average yields of these forage crops in several years on the basis of the model developed by Yu.I. Kopyonkin (KopyeonkinYu.I.2008.  , KopyeonkinYu.I.  2009., KopyeonkinYu.I. 2002). Forage crops yield data of an agricultural enterprise for eight years is used in the model; the minimum feed prime cost is taken as an optimum criterion. The science-based diet for high-producing cattle is used in the model. During solving the model, the crops with the lowest yield variability are chosen within each feed groups, i.e. concentrated, coarse and succulent, as the optimum. The model provides for a certain degree of risk to be chosen by the head of the enterprise; At this the higher the risk, the higher the forage crops yield. In the result of the model solving, the enterprise is offered the optimum, in terms of feed production sustainability maximum, as well as production prime cost minimum, forage crops sown areas structure to provide for the uninterrupted feed supply of the cattle.